Kharif 2026 Monsoon Advisory: Crop, Water & PMFBY Guide
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Last updated: 23 July 2026 · By Anamika Anand · 12 min read
Quick answer
India's 2026 monsoon is a timing problem, not a drought. Rainfall between 1 June and 15 July ran about 23% below normal, but July recovered to roughly 7% below normal after a 40% shortfall in June. The rain returned; the three lost weeks of the sowing calendar did not. The four decisions that matter now:
- Enrol in PMFBY crop insurance before 31 July 2026 — the deadline is eight days away.
- Switch to short-duration paddy varieties (125 days or less) if you are still transplanting.
- Move paddy irrigation to alternate wetting and drying — stop keeping fields flooded.
- Sow moong or urad by end-July on any land still open; sesame and sunflower in August.
On this page
- Where the 2026 monsoon actually stands
- PMFBY last date 2026: what to do in eight days
- Best short-duration paddy varieties for late transplanting
- How to manage water in a deficit year (AWD method)
- Fertiliser and weed management under moisture stress
- Which crops can still be sown in late July and August
- Pest control: fall armyworm, stem borer, planthoppers
- Paddy MSP 2026-27 and what the price signal means
- Why rabi 2026-27 is the real risk
- Frequently asked questions
The one thing worth understanding first
Most coverage of the 2026 monsoon has been written in the language of drought. That framing is wrong, and it pushes farmers toward the wrong decisions.
India this July is not short of rain the way 2009 or 2015 were short of rain. It is short of time. The monsoon arrived, stalled through one of the driest Junes on record, then came back.
A rainfall problem says: wait, conserve, hold back. A calendar problem says: move now, shorten everything, and plan the exit.
Kharif 2026 is a calendar problem. Everything below follows from that.
Where the 2026 monsoon actually stands {where-the-2026-monsoon-actually-stands}
Rainfall deficit 2026: the regional picture
Between 1 June and 15 July 2026, India recorded about 23% below-normal rainfall. The average conceals enormous regional variation
| Region | Rainfall departure (1 Jun – 15 Jul 2026) |
|---|---|
| East & Northeast India | −36% |
| South Peninsular India | −26% |
| Northwest India | −19% |
| Central India | −13% |
| All India | −23% |
By mid-July, 397 of India's 741 districts were recording below-normal rainfall, of which 71 fell into the "large deficient" category.
Kharif sowing 2026: where the losses are
By 17 July 2026, farmers had sown 658.19 lakh hectares, against 700.47 lakh hectares at the same point last year — roughly 6% behind. But the headline number hides which crops actually lost:
| Crop group | Change vs. last year |
|---|---|
| Rice | −0.84% |
| Oilseeds | −5.54% |
| Cotton | −5.96% |
| Coarse cereals | −11.23% |
| Pulses | −15.08% |
Rice has almost caught up, because farmers pushed transplanting hard the moment water arrived. Pulses and coarse cereals — the crops with narrow, unforgiving sowing windows — lost their windows while people waited for rain.
Reservoir storage: the number that should worry you most
On 16 July 2026, the 166 major reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission held 63.249 BCM — about 34% of live capacity, and only around 61% of what they held on the same date last year. Fifty-seven of those reservoirs sat below 80% of normal storage.
The El Niño signal
The IMD's updated seasonal forecast put June–September rainfall at about 90% of the long-period average, which is below normal. Weak El Niño conditions have been prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with model guidance suggesting they may strengthen. Historically, El Niño years damage the second half of the monsoon more than the first.
What to watch: the IMD releases its August outlook and second-half-of-season forecast around the end of July. If you read one weather document this month, read that one.
PMFBY last date 2026: what to do in the next eight days {pmfby-last-date-2026}
The enrolment deadline for Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana for Kharif 2026 is 31 July 2026.
State notifications and notified crop lists vary, so confirm your district's specifics — but the national window closes in eight days.
Why it matters more this season than most: PMFBY covers dry spells and drought, not just flood and hailstorm. In a year where the back half of the monsoon carries an El Niño risk, and reservoirs are already thin, this is precisely the risk the scheme exists for. The farmer's share of the premium for kharif crops is 2% of the sum insured.
How to enrol:
- Loanee farmers (KCC or crop loan): your bank normally enrols you automatically. Check — don't assume.
- Non-loanee farmers, tenants and sharecroppers: you must apply yourself, at pmfby.gov.in, a Common Service Centre, a bank branch, or your PACS.
- Documents: Aadhaar, land records, bank account details, sowing certificate where required.
- Grievances: the Krishi Rakshak portal, or helpline 14447.
Missing this date means carrying the entire back half of an El Niño monsoon on your own balance sheet.
Best short-duration paddy varieties for late transplanting {short-duration-paddy-varieties}
If your seedlings are still in the nursery — the situation across much of the Gangetic belt — the variety decision is the highest-stakes choice you will make this month.
Short-duration and drought-tolerant paddy varieties recommended by ICAR's Eastern Research Complex, Patna:
Swarna Shreya · Swarna Unnat · Prabhat · Turanta · Sahbhagi · Rajendra Shweta · DRR-46 · Arize-6129 · Arize-6444
Telangana's contingency plan gives a simpler rule: if rain was late, choose varieties of 125 days or less.
A long-duration variety transplanted in late July does not just yield less. It also delays when your field is free for rabi — the second, quieter cost most people never count.
Other adjustments for late transplanting
- Raise seed rate by 15–20% when transplanting late.
- Use mat-type or DAPOG nurseries where possible.
- Consider direct-seeded rice (DSR) where you cannot flood a field for puddling but have moisture. DSR into unpuddled moist soil saves a substantial share of the water a transplanted crop needs. It demands a tighter weed plan.
- Where irrigation is genuinely limited, don't plant rice at all. Switch to arhar (pigeon pea), maize, ragi, soybean or millets.
- Organise community nurseries so a shared water source can feed phased transplanting instead of every household gambling separately.
- Level the field first. If a laser land leveller is available, use it — uniform water depth is the difference between one irrigation and two.
- Treat and prime seed with fungicide plus biofertiliser. Cheap, dull, and among the highest-return actions available in a stressed year.
How to manage water in a deficit year: the AWD method {awd-irrigation-method}
The most common mistake in a deficit year is keeping paddy fields continuously flooded.
Alternate wetting and drying (AWD), in practice
Switch to AWD irrigation. The trigger is simple enough to use without instruments:
Irrigate when hairline cracks begin to appear in the soil, or when the water level has fallen about 15 cm below the surface. Not before.
AWD can cut water use substantially without a yield penalty on most varieties, and in a year when the reservoir system is at a third of capacity, water you keep on your own field is the only water you control.
Raise your bunds now
Repair and raise field bunds while it is still raining. Every centimetre of bund height is free storage.
For non-paddy crops, the opposite risk applies
Maize, soybean, cotton and pulses face waterlogging damage during intense bursts. Clear drainage channels. Even a few hours of standing water opens the door to root rot — and this year's pattern of long dry spells punctuated by heavy downpours is exactly the pattern that produces waterlogging on an already moisture-stressed crop.
Fertiliser and weed management under moisture stress {fertiliser-weed-management}
Two fertiliser rules, both frequently broken
1. Never apply urea or chemical fertiliser to dry soil. It is wasted, and at worst it burns the crop. Wait for adequate soil moisture or a rain event.
2. Split nitrogen into three or four doses, not one or two, and use neem-coated urea. When you cannot predict the next usable rain, splitting nitrogen means no single application is ever fully at risk.
Under visible moisture stress: a foliar spray of 2% urea or an NPK solution is the recommended rescue measure. It is a bridge, not a substitute for soil nutrition — but it buys days.
Weed control in a dry year
Weeds compete for the scarce thing. For paddy, the standard recommendation is pre-emergence pendimethalin or pretilachlor, followed by bispyribac-sodium at later stages. Use a cono-weeder for mechanical weeding where field conditions permit, and mulch with crop residue — it holds soil moisture and suppresses weeds simultaneously.
Always confirm chemical choice, dose and timing with your local KVK or district agriculture officer. Recommendations vary by state, variety and growth stage, and a wrong dose on a stressed crop does more damage than on a healthy one.
Which crops can still be sown in late July and August {late-sowing-window}
If your first sowing failed to germinate, or a patch of field is still open, some windows close in days rather than weeks. From Chhattisgarh's 2026 contingency plan:
| Crop | Sowing window |
|---|---|
| Moong, urad | By end of July |
| Sesame, sunflower | August |
| Medium-duration pigeon pea | August |
Additional guidance:
- Resowing after failed germination: use about 10% more seed than the normal rate.
- Sow in rows, not broadcast. Row sowing conserves moisture, makes weeding possible, and improves root development. In a drought-leaning year, this is a requirement, not a refinement.
Do not leave land fallow by default while waiting to see what the rain does. A short-duration pulse or oilseed on that acre is worth more than an empty field — and it fixes nitrogen for whatever follows.
Pest control in kharif 2026: what a dry-then-wet monsoon produces {pest-control-kharif-2026}
Erratic monsoons change pest pressure in predictable ways, and 2026 is running true to form.
Fall armyworm in maize
An outbreak has already been reported across six districts of Himachal Pradesh's maize belt, with infestation touching around 15% in some blocks. Fall armyworm spreads fast and does most of its damage early.
How to identify fall armyworm damage:
- Windowpane feeding on tender leaves
- Ragged, irregular holes in foliage
- Larvae and their frass sitting inside the maize whorl
What to do: scout weekly by walking the field, not inspecting from the bund. Pheromone traps are the standard monitoring tool.
Stem borer and planthoppers in rice
These run from roughly July through October. Brown and white-backed planthoppers suck sap from the leaf sheath, killing the crop in expanding dry patches.
Economic threshold (ICAR-IIRR): around ten brown planthoppers per hill at tillering. Spray only after the threshold is crossed. Earlier spraying kills the natural enemies that would otherwise suppress the population, and accelerates resistance.
Two rules that matter more in a stressed year
- Keep field boundaries clean and remove weed hosts — that is where pests stage.
- A moisture-stressed plant is a more attractive and less resilient host. The same pest pressure produces more damage this year, so scout more often, not less.
Paddy MSP 2026-27 and what the price signal is telling you {paddy-msp-2026-27}
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has set minimum support prices for 14 kharif crops for the 2026-27 marketing season.
| Crop | MSP 2026-27 (₹/quintal) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Paddy (common) | 2,441 | +72 |
| Paddy (Grade A) | 2,461 | +72 |
| Maize | 2,410 | +10 |
| Bajra | 2,900 | — |
| Jowar (hybrid) | 4,023 | — |
| Cotton (medium staple) | 8,267 | +557 |
| Cotton (long staple) | 8,667 | — |
| Sesamum | 10,346 | +500 |
| Sunflower seed | — | +622 |
Read the spread, not the individual numbers. Paddy rose about 3%. Cotton, sunflower and sesamum rose far more. Margins over cost of production are pegged highest for moong (~61%), bajra and maize (~56% each) and tur (~54%).
The government has deliberately made pulses, oilseeds and cotton more attractive relative to paddy. If the rain already had you considering a shift out of a water-intensive crop, the price structure is paying you to make it.
Farm unions have argued the paddy increase is inadequate against input cost inflation. That is a fair argument about the level — it does not change the direction of the signal.
Government support already in place
- Contingency plans drawn up with ICAR and shared with states in advance; 315 districts flagged as vulnerable, of which 111 have less than a quarter of farmland under any irrigation
- 270 sensitive districts under active weekly monitoring
- National seed reserve of around 1,75,000 quintals held for replanting needs
- Stepped-up Kisan Credit Card enrolment drive
- Kharif foodgrain target of around 176 million tonnes, with comfortable central buffer stocks of rice and wheat
For farmers in Bihar
The state has committed to prioritising daytime power supply for irrigation, roughly 6 a.m. to 6 p.m., so pump-set irrigation happens in daylight rather than at 2 a.m. District magistrates in low-rainfall areas have been asked to prepare situation reports, and a diesel subsidy for irrigation is on the table if conditions warrant it.
Keep your diesel purchase receipts. Subsidy claims in previous rounds were processed through the state agriculture department's DBT portal, and receipts are what turn an announcement into money in your account.
Why rabi 2026-27 is the risk nobody is discussing {rabi-2026-27-risk}
This is the risk that will be obvious in November and is invisible in July.
A late kharif means a late harvest. A late harvest means late rabi sowing. And rabi 2026-27 begins from reservoirs that stood at a third of capacity in mid-July, with groundwater drawn down harder than usual because so many farmers ran pumps through a dry June and July.
The chain:
Delayed transplanting → long-duration variety → October–November harvest → wheat, mustard or gram sown two to three weeks late → terminal heat stress in March, on a crop that also had less irrigation water available.
This is the strongest practical argument for choosing short-duration varieties right now, even at some cost to kharif yield.
You are not just planting a kharif crop. You are setting the date your field becomes available for the next one. A variety that gives 5% less rice but frees the field two weeks earlier may well be the better decision across both seasons.
Plan the handover now: decide your rabi crop, book seed early, and if you have any capacity to build on-farm water storage or a farm pond before October, this is the year it pays for itself.
If you're not a farmer but your work touches farming
Input dealers and retailers. Demand is skewing toward short-duration paddy seed, pulse and oilseed seed for late sowing, and biofertilisers — not the usual mix. Selling a 150-day variety in late July is a sale you will pay for in reputation.
FPOs and cooperatives. The three highest-value things to organise this month, in order: a PMFBY enrolment drive before 31 July; shared community nurseries with staggered transplanting; pooled procurement of short-duration seed. All three are things individual smallholders cannot do alone.
Agri-lenders and MFIs. Repayment stress will surface on a lag, concentrated in rainfed districts among the 111 with minimal irrigation coverage. Restructuring conversations are easier in September than December.
Extension workers and KVK staff. The advisory content exists and is good. The gap is delivery timing — a variety recommendation is worth a great deal on 20 July and nothing on 20 August. Push through WhatsApp, village meetings and local-language audio, which travel further than a PDF.
Buyers and processors. Expect rice supply to hold up reasonably; pulses and coarse cereals to be tighter. Contract accordingly.
Your action checklist for this week
- Enrol in PMFBY before 31 July. If you are a loanee, confirm your bank has actually done it
- Check whether your district is among the 270 under sensitive monitoring
- If seedlings are still in the nursery: switch to a short-duration variety, raise seed rate 15–20%, or shift to DSR or a pulse/oilseed
- Repair and raise field bunds while it is still raining
- Switch paddy irrigation to AWD — water only at hairline cracks or 15 cm below surface
- Split nitrogen into 3–4 doses; never apply to dry soil
- Sow moong or urad by end of July if any land is still open
- Walk fields weekly, scouting for fall armyworm, stem borer and planthoppers
- Keep every diesel and input receipt
- Read the IMD August and second-half outlook when it lands at month-end
- Decide your rabi crop and book seed now
The honest bottom line
This is a below-normal monsoon in a year with an El Niño signal (it is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific), thin reservoirs and a compressed calendar. That is a genuinely difficult combination, and nobody should pretend otherwise.
But it is not a failed season. Rice acreage has almost caught up. July rainfall recovered to within 7% of normal. Contingency plans, seed reserves and buffer stocks are in place. The specific varieties, dates and practices that turn a late start into an acceptable harvest are all known, published and available from your nearest Krishi Vigyan Kendra.
The difference between a bad year and a survivable one, in 2026, will come down to how many farmers made small decisions quickly in the last week of July — rather than good decisions slowly in the second week of August.
Eight days until the insurance deadline. Start there.
Frequently asked questions {faq}
Is there a drought in India in 2026?
No official drought has been declared nationally. Rainfall between 1 June and 15 July 2026 was about 23% below normal, and 397 of 741 districts recorded below-normal rain — but July rainfall recovered to roughly 7% below normal after a 40% June shortfall. The greater problem is the loss of three to four weeks of the sowing calendar, not the total volume of rain.
What is the last date for PMFBY crop insurance for Kharif 2026?
The enrolment deadline for Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana for Kharif 2026 is 31 July 2026. Notified crops and specific arrangements vary by state, so confirm with your district agriculture office, bank, PACS or Common Service Centre. Farmers pay 2% of the sum insured as premium for kharif crops.
Which paddy varieties are best for late transplanting in 2026?
ICAR's Eastern Research Complex, Patna recommends short-duration and drought-tolerant varieties including Swarna Shreya, Swarna Unnat, Prabhat, Turanta, Sahbhagi, Rajendra Shweta, DRR-46, Arize-6129 and Arize-6444. As a general rule, choose varieties of 125 days or less when transplanting is delayed, and increase seed rate by 15–20%.
What is the alternate wetting and drying (AWD) method?
AWD is an irrigation practice for paddy in which the field is allowed to dry between irrigations instead of being kept continuously flooded. The practical trigger for re-irrigating is when hairline cracks appear in the soil, or when the water level falls about 15 cm below the surface. It substantially reduces water use without a yield penalty on most varieties.
What is the MSP for paddy in 2026-27?
The minimum support price for common-grade paddy for the 2026-27 kharif marketing season is ₹2,441 per quintal, and Grade A paddy is ₹2,461 per quintal — an increase of ₹72 over the previous season.
Which crops can still be sown in late July 2026?
Moong and urad can be sown until the end of July. Sesame, sunflower and medium-duration pigeon pea varieties fall in the August window. If resowing after failed germination, use about 10% more seed than the normal rate, and sow in rows rather than broadcasting.
How do I identify fall armyworm in maize?
Look for windowpane feeding on tender leaves, ragged irregular holes in the foliage, and larvae along with their frass inside the maize whorl. Scout weekly by walking through the field, and use pheromone traps for monitoring.
Will the 2026 monsoon improve in August and September?
The IMD's updated seasonal forecast placed June–September rainfall at about 90% of the long-period average, which is below normal, with weak El Niño conditions prevailing and possibly strengthening. The IMD issues its August outlook and second-half-of-season forecast around the end of July 2026 — that document is the most reliable guide to the remainder of the season.
Sources: India Meteorological Department seasonal and monthly outlooks; Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers' Welfare sowing data and the 21 July 2026 review meeting; Central Water Commission reservoir storage bulletin, 16 July 2026; ICAR Eastern Research Complex, Patna agro-advisory; state contingency plans for Chhattisgarh and Telangana; CCEA MSP notification for Kharif 2026-27.
Variety, chemical, and dosage recommendations vary by state and agro-climatic zone. Confirm with your district agriculture office or Krishi Vigyan Kendra before acting.
